International Contest 2018 is finally here! Who you choose? And who will be the 2018 International WINNER?
The International 2018 Contest: Players
When it comes to player contest, methodology is going to be very similar to how Team contest were made, and will frequently be based on the analysis we already did in the previous part. They are probably even harder to guess correctly, but we will try our best to provide you with some reasoning behind our choices.
If you haven’t read our Team contest post yet, I recommend you look through it, since it will be frequently referred to in this post. We also used the most recent stats for aggregates, filtering out data older than three months.
PLAYER WITH HIGHEST KILL AVERAGE
When looking for a player with the highest kill average, firstly we need to look for the teams with the highest kill average and then look for how kills are distributed among the members of the team.
Abed is actually a good guess. Team’s playstyle often revolves around playmaking heroes for Abed, who creates space for EternaLEnVy to secure lategame. On average, Abed kills 23% more heroes in their games, compared to Envy, making for a big enough difference.
For comparison, there is less than 1% difference between the average amount of kills between hFn k3 ♥ M and w33 on Pain Gaming. But there was one more team we mentioned in the previous post, that can fit the “Highest Kill Average” criteria—Winstrike
The difference in kill average between Iceberg and Silent is almost 37%, with Iceberg frequently playing space-creating cores. Perhaps even more importantly, he is also an extremely bold player, who often trades his life if that nets his team more in return.
Going with either Abed or Iceberg are both valid options. Personally, I will be going with the latter, seeing how his average kills per game is among the highest across all professional players in all teams and not only across the teams that we expect to have longer, bloodier matches.
PLAYER WITH MOST KILLS IN A GAME
Following the same logic as in our Team contest post, we expect the player with the most kills in a game to come from a drawn-out bloodbath match between an aggressive mid-tier team and an aggressive tournament favorite. Long story short—our bet is on Somnus丶M
PSG.LGD is the Big3 team that is most likely to have a long game with a lot of kills. Moreover, on average Somnus丶M kills 20% more heroes than Ame, so there is a big enough disparity. And while the difference between Miracle- and MATUMBAMAN is even larger, at almost 23%, as mentioned previously, we do not expect Liquid to have a bloody game, since their playstyle is generally more disciplined and choreographed.
PLAYER WITH LOWEST DEATH AVERAGE
Despite average team results and a messy qualification run, Raven is easily the least dying professional player attending the International 2018. On average, he dies 2.67 times per game.
For reference, Somnus丶M is at 4.06, Miracle- is at 4.66 and SumaiL is at 4.98. These three players also had higher winrate in their games, meaning that regardless of match outcome, you can bet on Raven to die very little.
PLAYER WITH HIGHEST ASSIST AVERAGE
From stats alone, there are two clear winners when it comes to the amount of assists: both Nofear and ALWAYSWANNAFLY have on average above 19 assists in their games.
That is a lot more than the next three competitors: fy is at 17.58, LaNm is at 17.14 and YapzOr is at 16.95.
All five players are definitely worth considering when it comes to this contest and your choice should largely depend on how you feel about particular teams: are their results going to be better or worse on the International stage, how well will they adapt to the new patch etc.
Personally, I feel like experience will allow fy to emerge victorious in this contest—he is experienced, plays on a team that is a clear favorite and often goes for risky, but extremely stylish plays.
PLAYER WITH MOST ASSISTS IN A GAME
Following the same logic as we did in Team contest post, we expect PSG.LGD to have a bloodbath game and win it, hence as with previous section our money is on fy.
PLAYER WITH HIGHEST LAST HIT AVERAGE
Longer games mean more last hits, so we are looking for a farm-oriented team that likes to stall the games, fight little and farm efficiently. Paparazi灬 from Vici Gaming looks like a good candidate. We’ve already placed Vici Gaming as the team to win the longest game and given their playstyle, Paparazi灬 is definitely a very good guess for this section.
From raw stats alone, he is actually the second in average last hits per game across all professional player attending TI8. First place, with a decent lead, is taken by Agressif, who is currently playing for Invictus Gaming.
Depending on how you feel about the current iteration of iG and whether you believe international competitors will allow them to farm as much as they did in their qualifiers run, choosing either can be rationalized. Despite being a BoBoKa and iG fan I will still bet on Paparazi灬, as Vici Gaming currently looks like a stronger team, compared to iG and statistics for their games comes from international competitions, so it is more similar to what will happen at TI.
PLAYER WITH MOST LAST HITS IN A GAME
Here we are looking for the longest match with farm-oriented players involved and once again, we think Paparazi灬 is going to be the king. We believe his team will win the longest match at TI, he will have the highest average last hits per game and it is only natural to believe that he will have the most last hits in a single game as well.
The only problem is that Vici Gaming don’t play Anti-Mage too much, and historically an Anti-Mage game is going to result in a record-breaking amount of last hits. To be fair, no professional players play Anti-Mage much in the current meta, with a single showing from Mineski during the China Supermajor, but it is TI and there is always going to be that one game, where AM gets out of control, ruining our pubs for a week. It can be a Paparazi灬 AM, or it can be AM by someone else and if you have someone in mind, feel free to share your guess in the comment section below.
PLAYER WITH MOST GPM IN A GAME
This section can be roughly translated into “which team will pick Alchemist and make him work”. Of all high caliber teams attending this TI, only OG and Pain Gaming tried playing Alchemist in the last three months: OG won one out of two games with the hero, Pain Gaming didn’t win their only game.
If you believe that Alchemist will be victorious in at least one game throughout TI, your best guess will be ana. He is well known for playing the hero and plays for a team that is definitely capable of convincingly winning against weaker teams during the group stage.
If, however, you don’t believe in either OG as a whole or Alchemist specifically, bet on Resolut1on. He has the highest average GPM among all players and has the potential to go completely out of control on many different heroes, getting kill after kill and objective after objective. Moreover, more than any other team, VGJ.Storm is reliant on their star player and generally leave him all the farm.
hFn k3 ♥ M is also worth considering, since he has the same average GPM as Resolut1on, however latest results show that VGJ.Storm is probably the stronger team.
PLAYER WITH HIGHEST GPM AVERAGE
PLAYER THAT PLAYS THE MOST DIFFERENT HEROES
There are several players with exceptionally wide hero pools that are going to be attending TI. In the last three months, SumaiL, Abed, Resolut1on, Sneyking and MSS- all played more than 25 different heroes. The question to ask is which of these players is going to be in the tournament the longest.
On top of it, you can also think which team you believe to be strong enough to go deep into the tournament, but not strong enough to dictate the meta and still be forced to occasionally change their drafts and adapt to the opponents.
With this in mind, and taking into account recent The Summit 9 results, SumaiL is probably your best bet. Do keep in mind, however, that Resolut1on knocked EG out of the the International for two years in a row now, so anything can happen.
The International 2018 Contest: Teams
With roughly two weeks until the International 2018 and no other tournaments left, it is time to do our contest. Today we are going to focus on the “Teams” tab of the compendium, giving our reasoning behind certain choices.
contest are hard, but if you carefully look through the data and apply your Dota knowledge, you can make more educated guesses and increase your chances of being correct. Much like real life betting, Compendium contest require a decent amount of work, but in this case we will try to do most of it for you.
WHICH TEAM WILL WIN?
There are three clear favorites coming into TI: Team Liquid, Virtus.Pro and PSG.LGD and either of these choices is as valid as the other ones. They have the most DPC points, with Team Liquid and PSG.LGD coming in strong at the end of the year.
VIRTUS.PRO—UNRIVALED DIVERSITY OF TALENT
Virtus.pro are currently leading the race to win TI, according to most bookies with Buff88.com offering 4to1 odds for the outcome. After winning the last 3 ESL Majors–ESL One Hamburg 2017, ESL One Katowice 2018 and ESL One Birmingham 2018–with all 3 MVP prizes being awarded to different players on the team, the CIS team has shown outstanding diversity in their playstyle and have proven that they can adapt to any team and patch change. The only setback on their way to The International was their close 2-3 loss to Team Liquid in the final of the China Dota2 Supermajor in early June.
TEAM LIQUID—THE REIGNING CHAMPION
Team Liquid is the only team in history to have won a TI final 3-0 which they did last year over Newbee. After going to the lower bracket, TL had to face Virtus.pro and 3 Asian teams to win and most people had written them off. The team managed to beat all 4 opponents and grab over 10 million dollars. During the run Liquid showed a dominant style of play and that they, much like VP, are excellent at adaptation due to their great captains – KuroKy and Solo respectively. They had Virtus.pro’s number last time around but will they be able to duplicate it on the biggest stage? On Buff88.com, the odds are equal at 4to1 for Team Liquid to win the International 8.
After rebranding to PSG.LGD in mid-April, the Chinese team has managed to win back-to-back big events. They beat Team Liquid 3-1 in early May at EPICENTER, held in Moscow and secured a 3-0 over VGJ.Storm in MDL Changsha Major in the end of the month. It can be presumed that the momentum is on their side. However, a disadvantage might be that Chinese teams know each other rather well and LGD could get upset if they come across another Chinese team. Having said that, Chinese teams usually have a strong start in the biggest Dota 2 tournament. Will they manage to go all the way? Buff88.com has them at 5to1 to win it all.
Realistically, you can put any team in this section and provide enough argument to support it. It is The International and anything can happen. Personally, I am putting Team Serenity there, hoping for another Wings Gaming-style run, hopefully without the similar aftermath.
TEAM WITH HIGHEST KILL AVERAGE
Essentially we are looking for a team that has an above average game length, above average levels of aggression and drafts that favor teamfights over objective taking. A team like this will have more drawn-out matches with lots of kills.
We also shouldn’t put absolute favorites or underdogs in this section: favorites will generally finish their games against underdogs very quickly, so both categories of teams will have less time to make kills, dragging the average down. It is not Average Kills per minute, it is Average Kills per match, so we are looking for a mid-tier team that won’t quickly crumble under the pressure of favorites, but will sometimes have trouble against the underdogs.
Looking at the Summit 9 stats for matches of over 60 minutes, there is one thing in common for all of them that immediately stands out: Fnatic.
This team checks all four of our checkboxes. They are the mid-tier team with the highest average game lengths that they fill with intense action. Betting on Total Kills going above a certain value is always safe with Fnatic, because they exceed it in every. single. game. they. play.
It is only natural to put Fnatic as a team with the highest kill average, at least with the data we have. Winstrike could also be one of the contestants for this spot, as they are an aggressive mid-tier team that can surprise us. Depending on your outlook on South American Dota, Pain Gaming is also worth considering.
TEAM WITH MOST KILLS IN A GAME
There is a reason we talked about highest Kill average first, despite it being the third category in the compendium contest. The team with most kills in a game is most likely to be a better team playing against the team with the highest kill average.
Basically, we are looking for a very strong team that will have this one match against Fnatic that goes on for 60+ minutes, keeping us on the edge of our seats. It should be one of the tournament’s favourites that also likes to play aggressively and get into many fights.
There are three major favorites of the tournament, as discussed previously. Of them, Team Liquid is the most surgical: they have one of the highest KDA ratios in China Supermajor, despite being only fifth in average kills. They aren’t going to give Fnatic their scrappy fights, instead striking once or twice with deadly precision to win the game. They might have long games, but they won’t consciously engage in fights they have lower chance of winning.
Virtus.Pro is an aggressive team and they are more than happy to fight the enemy, but they are also very objective-oriented. Their drafts often revolve around objective-taking heroes that they push to their limits in teamfights, so it is unlikely they will have a drawn-out match with Fnatic in the first place. Once again returning to China Supermajor stats: Virtus.Pro is one of the teams with lowest average match lengths, and it will probably cancel out the Fnatic effect.
That leaves us with PSG.LGD and they are going to be our choice for this section. High kill average, high death average, above average game length, one of the strongest teams in the tournament. As long as there is at least one Fnatic vs. PSG.LGD series, we will probably have one of these epic games everyone talks about for several years and it is unlikely either of these teams won’t make it through the group stage.
TEAM WITH FEWEST DEATHS IN A GAME
Each International there is this one game where the score is incredibly one-sided, with a very low amount of deaths on one team. It frequently gets to something like 20:1 and the enemy team simply “gg”s out of the game after yet another unsuccessful fight. We are looking for a recipe for a game like this.
Obviously, one team has to be a lot better than the other for a game like this to happen, so we are definitely not looking at underdogs. But perhaps an even more important ingredient is how flexible and versatile the team is and how willing their captain is to step out of meta, risk experimenting and completely outdraft the opponent, leaving them no chance from the very start.
You can put Team Liquid in this category, as they are the team with one of the lowest average deaths per game, with players who have a very wide hero pool. It is a safe bet, but maybe a bit too safe, as we aren’t looking for the lowest death average, but rather for this one game of complete and utter outdraft.
Personally, I will be going with Optic Gaming and PPD on this one. Legendary captain, strong team, high versatility on all positions and willingness to take risks. Depending on your own preferences and beliefs, Team Secret and Evil Geniuses are also worth considering.
TEAM WITH MOST ASSISTS IN A GAME
When it comes to assists, we are looking for a team that plays grouped up, rarely going for split-push tactics. They will have higher assist average and are more likely to have the most assists in a single game.
Statistically, Vici Gaming, Mineski and TNC Predator have the highest average amount of assists, so they are probably the best candidates for this category. Of these, TNC Predator is the one that is most likely to get in the zone, playing some god-tier Dota, winning teamfight after teamfight, but not ending the game because they are simply enjoying the process so much.
All three teams are definitely worth considering, but players on both Mineski and Vici Gaming are much older, more disciplined and are more likely to simply end the game when they are already leading so much that they can win teamfights over and over again.
TEAM THAT WINS THE LONGEST GAME
It might look like that we can go back to the “Most Kills” or “Highest Average Kills” sections and pretty much repeat what we’ve already said about Fnatic and PSG.LGD, but in reality this section is quite different.
The “Chinese Turtle Dota” stereotype is quite outdated, as after TI4 we’ve seen very different Chinese teams playing different Dota and they are now often the aggressors. However, while it is outdated, it isn’t completely dead.
Of all Chinese teams, Vici Gaming is probably the most conservative. They have high average game lengths, but are not necessarily aggressive. Whereas Fnatic’s gameplan often revolves around going late, Vici Gaming is much more likely to get stuck in a never-ending stalemate, with both teams unwilling to take risks.
There will be an 80+ minute game, but not with constant buybacks, fights, throws and counter-throws, but rather with fermented Cheeses, fifth Roshans, multiple Divine Rapiers and, potentially, a very anti-climactic ending. These things happen, and most often they happen to Vici Gaming. If you intend on following this team, we strongly recommend learning to appreciate zen-beauty of the old school Chinese Dota.
TEAM THAT WINS THE SHORTEST GAME
Once again, Shortest Game is not necessarily the same as the lowest amount of Deaths. The recipe for the latter is a complete outdraft and the length of the game is highly dependant on how willing the enemy will be to admit defeat, when they are essentially stuck in their base with nothing to do.
The recipe for the former is surgical precision, objective-oriented drafting and quick and deadly strikes. We’ve used the same expressions to refer to Team Liquid and Virtus.Pro previously and both of these choices are valid for this category. Choosing either is largely a matter of preference: Virtus.Pro is more likely to have a faster-paced lineup, while Team Liquid is less likely to make a positioning mistake, allow the enemy to get a return kill and extend the game by another unnecessary minute.
TEAM WITH HIGHEST GAME LENGTH AVERAGE
MOST DIFFERENT HEROES
We are looking for a versatile team that is likely to do well in the tournament, playing more matches and having more opportunities to pick different heroes. It has to be a highly adaptable team, but it shouldn’t necessarily be too dominant.
Looking back at TI5 and TI7, the Champions weren’t the most versatile teams in the tournament. They simply had a question in their draft that their opponent couldn’t answer: “what are you going to do about our Techies?”, “what are you going to do about our KotL?” or ”what are you going to do about our Io?”. Neither Newbee, nor CDEC could respond or come up with an even more interesting question.
Moreover, no teams in the International 2018 look like they can afford to do what Wings Gaming did in TI6. They asked a simple, yet undeniably effective question: ?, and to this day many seek the answer to it with no success.
With an absence of a team that can go ?, our best bet is to go back to stats, looking for strong teams with high versatility.
With how equal in strength the top teams of the tournament look, either of them can be a safe pick, but Virtus.Pro is probably the safest bet. Not only is it a team that won the Summit 7 without playing the same hero twice, it is also the top4 team that experimented the most during the recent China Supermajor, with 47 unique picks, compared to 34, 36 and 37 by Team Liquid, PSG.LGD and Team Secret respectively.
Alternatively, VGJ.Storm is also a good bet, if you believe they will make it far into the tournament. In the last three months four members of this team played more than 20 different heroes.
FEWEST DIFFERENT HEROES
This category has the “minimum 10 games played” restriction, but it doesn’t matter, since every team will have 16 matches during the group stage. Essentially, we are more or less looking for a team that will get eliminated during the group stage, coming to the tournament underprepared and having a limited amount of strategies. Someone who will exit the tournament in shame, will show nothing and will most likely disband the following season.
Alternatively, it can actually be the most dominant team that will have a strategy no one can beat. They will crush every opponent with ease and will not be forced to adapt in the slightest, because they figured out the ultimate way to play Dota this TI. Their enemies won’t be able to find an answer, and when someone would try to deviate, banning one of the heroes they thought crucial, they would get crushed even harder.
Personally, I am going with Evil Geniuses.
THE EXCITING PART IS FINALLY HERE! WANT TO JOIN & WIN THE CONTEST?
Simply answers three questions of the International event and submit your answer through email with us, easy enough?
1) Which team will win TI8?
2) Player with highest kills whole tournament?
3) Most picked hero?
How to answer?
1) Which team will win TI8?
2) Player with highest kills whole tournament?
3) Most picked hero?
*Maximum allow to pick 1 answer for each question. If answers are correct, the higher chance to get grant prize*
Some in-game Items Prizes:
This is not all of it, there are more rare arcane items and some special prizes for everyone, what are you waiting for?